The other day I had two interviews with reporters and prepared for a press conference with a nonprofit colleague. In all three meetings, I was asked in one way or another, "Are nonprofit organizations ready for a ‘new economic normal?’" All three conversations presumed we are headed to a new economic reality, for both the general economy and the nonprofit sector, where there is high unemployment, a sputtering stock market, and lower charitable giving from foundations and individuals. If that is the case, I wonder if the nonprofit sector has what it takes to change.

There is something in the DNA of a successful nonprofit leader that makes us eternal optimists. We see the good in people. We are motivated to make this a better world. Somehow, against all odds, we will find the resources to achieve our goals. We never give up. We never quit. We consider a negative response from a foundation as a challenge to go back and ask again in another way.

I think when the economy started to slide last fall, many nonprofit leaders concluded that they could pull through this without too much disruption. A few tweaks here, a layoff or two, but pretty much the same business model. As it turned out, 2008 wasn’t so bad. According to the latest Giving USA report, even though giving was down slightly, it still topped $300 billion for only the second time in history. In one of my recent blogs, I surmised these surprising results may have come as a result of a "giving surge" that won’t—and can’t—be replicated in 2009. All signs point to a tough 2009 and maybe even a rough 2010. (The Financial Times said yesterday the stimulus package may avert catastrophe and achieve merely misery).

Our March nonprofit economic survey found that nearly 40 percent of respondents had taken no steps yet to respond to the economic downturn. Here at GuideStar we have had to make some very difficult decisions already to balance our budget. We read daily now of foundations and nonprofits that are beginning to make significant layoffs. But we haven’t seen many examples yet of significant structural or business model changes given a "new normal" where foundation endowments are down 40 percent and charitable giving is likely to be below 2007 levels. Here’s the question: is the optimistic, can-do DNA that makes nonprofit leaders succeed despite the odds working against us as the "new normal" begins to take shape?

P.S. We plan to release the results of our June nonprofit economic survey the week of July 20.